|
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table G. Key Data Documentation (continued)
Government Finance
Balance of Payments
Statistics
Statistics
Historical Data
Latest Actual
Manual in
Subsectors
Accounting
Historical Data
Latest Actual
Manual in
Country
Source1
Annual Data
Use at Source
Coverage4
Practice5
Source1
Annual Data
Use at Source
Oman
MoF
2022
2001
CG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
Pakistan
MoF
2022/23
1986
CG,SG,LG
C
CB
2022/23
BPM 6
Palau
MoF
2021/22
2001
CG
MoF
2020/21
BPM 6
Panama
MoF
2022
2014
CG,SG,LG,SS,NFPC
C
NSO
2022
BPM 6
Papua New Guinea
MoF
2022
2014
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Paraguay
MoF
2022
2001
CG,SG,LG,SS,MPC
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Peru
CB and MoF
2022
2001
CG,SG,LG,SS
Mixed
CB
2022
BPM 5
Philippines
MoF
2022
2014
CG,LG,SS
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Poland
MoF and NSO
2022
ESA 2010
CG,LG,SS
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Portugal
NSO
2022
2001
CG,LG,SS
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Puerto Rico
MEP
2021/22
2001
A
Qatar
MoF
2022
1986
CG,other
C
CB and IMF staff
2022
BPM 6
Romania
MoF
2022
2001
CG,LG,SS
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Russia
MoF
2022
2014
CG,SG,SS
Mixed
CB
2022
BPM 6
Rwanda
MoF
2021
2014
CG
Mixed
CB
2021
BPM 6
Samoa
MoF
2021/22
2001
CG
A
CB
2021/22
BPM 6
San Marino
MoF
2022
CG
Other
2021
BPM 6
São Tomé and
MoF and Customs
2020
2001
CG
C
CB
2020
BPM 6
Príncipe
Saudi Arabia
MoF
2022
2014
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Senegal
MoF
2021
2001
CG
C
CB and IMF staff
2021
BPM 6
Serbia
MoF
2022
2014
CG,SG,LG,SS,other
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Seychelles
MoF
2021
2001
CG,SS
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
Sierra Leone
MoF
2022
1986
CG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
Singapore
MoF and NSO
2022/23
2014
CG
C
NSO
2022
BPM 6
Slovak Republic
NSO
2022
2001
CG,LG,SS
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Slovenia
MoF
2022
2001
CG,LG,SS
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Solomon Islands
MoF
2022
1986
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Somalia
MoF
2022
2001
CG
C
CB and IMF staff
2022
BPM 5
South Africa
MoF
2022
2001
CG,SG,SS,other
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
South Sudan
MoF and MEP
2021
CG
C
MoF, NSO, MEP, and
2021
BPM 6
IMF staff
Spain
MoF and NSO
2022
ESA 2010
CG,SG,LG,SS
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Sri Lanka
MoF
2021
1986
CG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
St. Kitts and Nevis
MoF
2022
1986
CG,SG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
St. Lucia
MoF
2022/23
1986
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
St. Vincent and the
MoF
2022
1986
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Grenadines
Sudan
MoF
2021
2001
CG
Mixed
CB
2021
BPM 6
Suriname
MoF
2021
1986
CG
Mixed
CB
2021
BPM 6
112
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table G. Key Data Documentation (continued)
National Accounts
Prices (CPI)
System of
Use of Chain-
Historical Data
Latest Actual
National
Weighted
Historical Data
Latest Actual
Country
Currency
Source1
Annual Data
Base Year2
Accounts
Methodology3
Source1
Annual Data
Sweden
Swedish krona
NSO
2022
2022
ESA 2010
From 1993
NSO
2022
Switzerland
Swiss franc
NSO
2022
2015
ESA 2010
From 1980
NSO
2022
Syria
Syrian pound
NSO
2010
2000
SNA 1993
NSO
2011
Taiwan Province of
New Taiwan dollar
NSO
2022
2016
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
China
Tajikistan
Tajik somoni
NSO
2022
1995
SNA 1993
NSO
2022
Tanzania
Tanzanian shilling
NSO
2021
2015
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
Thailand
Thai baht
MEP
2022
2002
SNA 1993
From 1993
MEP
2022
Timor-Leste
US dollar
NSO
2022
2015
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
Togo
CFA franc
NSO
2021
2016
SNA 2008
NSO
2021
Tonga
Tongan pa’anga
CB
2021/22
2016/17
SNA 2008
CB
2021/22
Trinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and
NSO
2022
2012
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
Tobago dollar
Tunisia
Tunisian dinar
NSO
2022
2015
SNA 1993
From 2009
NSO
2022
Türkiye
Turkish lira
NSO
2022
2009
ESA 2010
From 2009
NSO
2022
Turkmenistan
New Turkmen
IMF staff
2022
2006
SNA 2008
From 2007
NSO
2022
manat
Tuvalu
Australian dollar
PFTAC advisors
2021
2016
SNA 1993
NSO
2022
Uganda
Ugandan shilling
NSO
2022
2016
SNA 2008
CB
2022
Ukraine
Ukrainian hryvnia
NSO
2022
2016
SNA 2008
From 2005
NSO
2022
United Arab
U.A.E. dirham
NSO
2022
2010
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
Emirates
United Kingdom
British pound
NSO
2022
2019
ESA 2010
From 1980
NSO
2022
United States
US dollar
NSO
2022
2012
SNA 2008
From 1980
NSO
2022
Uruguay
Uruguayan peso
CB
2022
2016
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
Uzbekistan
Uzbek som
NSO
2022
2020
SNA 1993
NSO and IMF
2022
staff
Vanuatu
Vanuatu vatu
NSO
2020
2006
SNA 1993
NSO
2022
Venezuela
Venezuelan bolívar
CB
2018
1997
SNA 1993
CB
2022
Vietnam
Vietnamese dong
NSO
2022
2010
SNA 1993
NSO
2022
West Bank and Gaza
Israeli new shekel
NSO
2022
2015
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
Yemen
Yemeni rial
IMF staff
2022
1990
SNA 1993
NSO,CB, and
2022
IMF staff
Zambia
Zambian kwacha
NSO
2021
2010
SNA 2008
NSO
2021
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe dollar
NSO
2022
2019
SNA 2008
NSO
2022
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
113
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table G. Key Data Documentation (continued)
Government Finance
Balance of Payments
Statistics
Statistics
Historical Data
Latest Actual
Manual in
Subsectors
Accounting
Historical Data
Latest Actual
Manual in
Country
Source1
Annual Data
Use at Source
Coverage4
Practice5
Source1
Annual Data
Use at Source
Sweden
MoF
2021
2001
CG,LG,SS
A
NSO
2022
BPM 6
Switzerland
MoF
2022
2001
CG,SG,LG,SS
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Syria
MoF
2009
1986
CG
C
CB
2009
BPM 5
Taiwan Province of
MoF
2022
2001
CG,LG,SS
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
China
Tajikistan
MoF
2022
1986
CG,LG,SS
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Tanzania
MoF
2021
1986
CG,LG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
Thailand
MoF
2021/22
2001
CG,BCG,LG,SS
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Timor-Leste
MoF
2022
2001
CG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
Togo
MoF
2021
2001
CG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
Tonga
MoF
2020/21
2014
CG
C
CB and NSO
2020/21
BPM 6
Trinidad and Tobago
MoF
2022/23
1986
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Tunisia
MoF
2022
1986
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 5
Türkiye
MoF
2022
2001
CG,LG,SS,other
A
CB
2022
BPM 6
Turkmenistan
MoF
2022
1986
CG,LG
C
NSO
2022
BPM 6
Tuvalu
MoF
2022
CG
Mixed
IMF staff
2021
BPM 6
Uganda
MoF
2022
2001
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Ukraine
MoF
2022
2001
CG,LG,SS
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
United Arab
MoF
2022
2014
CG,BCG,SG,SS
Mixed
CB
2021
BPM 5
Emirates
United Kingdom
NSO
2022
2001
CG,LG
A
NSO
2022
BPM 6
United States
MEP
2022
2014
CG,SG,LG
A
NSO
2022
BPM 6
Uruguay
MoF
2022
1986
CG,LG,SS,NFPC,
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
NMPC
Uzbekistan
MoF
2022
2014
CG,SG,LG,SS
C
CB and MEP
2022
BPM 6
Vanuatu
MoF
2020
2001
CG
C
CB
2021
BPM 6
Venezuela
MoF
2017
2001
BCG,NFPC,SS,other
C
CB
2018
BPM 6
Vietnam
MoF
2021
2001
CG,SG,LG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
West Bank and Gaza
MoF
2022
2001
CG
Mixed
NSO
2022
BPM 6
Yemen
MoF
2022
2001
CG,LG
C
IMF staff
2022
BPM 5
Zambia
MoF
2022
1986
CG
C
CB
2022
BPM 6
Zimbabwe
MoF
2021
1986
CG
C
CB and MoF
2022
BPM 6
Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts.
1CB = central bank; Customs = Customs Authority; GAD = General Administration Department; MEP = Ministry of Economy, Planning, Commerce, and/or Development; MoF = Ministry
of Finance and/or Treasury; NSO = National Statistics Office; PFTAC = Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre.
2National accounts base year is the period with which other periods are compared and the period for which prices appear in the denominators of the price relationships used to
calculate the index.
3Use of chain-weighted methodology allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by reducing or eliminating the downward biases in volume series built on index numbers
that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past.
4BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; LG = local government; MPC = monetary public corporation, including central bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public
corporation; NMPC
= nonmonetary financial public corporation; SG = state government; SS = social security fund; TG = territorial governments.
5Accounting standard: A = accrual accounting; C = cash accounting; CB = commitment basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.
6Base year deflator is not equal to 100 because the nominal GDP is not measured in the same way as real GDP or the data are seasonally adjusted.
114
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions underlying the Projections for Selected Economies
Fiscal Policy Assumptions
state/territory governments, and the IMF staff’s
estimates and projections.
Te short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in
Austria: Fiscal projections are based on the
the World Economic Outlook (WEO) are normally
2023 budget and the April 2023 Austria Stability
based on officially announced budgets, adjusted
Programme. Te NextGenerationEU fund and the
for differences between the national authori-
latest announcement on fiscal measures have also
ties and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic
been incorporated.
assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. When
Belgium: Projections are based on the Belgian
no official budget has been announced, projections
Stability Programme 2023-26, the 2023 Budget-
incorporate policy measures judged likely to be
ary Plan, and other available information on the
implemented. Te medium-term fiscal projections
authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the
are similarly based on a judgment about policies’
IMF staff’s assumptions.
most likely path. For cases in which the IMF staff
Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2023 reflect current
has insufficient information to assess the authori-
policies in place.
ties’ budget intentions and prospects for policy
Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts
implementation, an unchanged structural primary
from the Government of Canada’s 2023 budget and
balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise.
the latest provincial budgets. Te IMF staff makes
Specific assumptions used in regard to some of the
some adjustments to these forecasts, including
advanced economies follow. (See also Tables B5 to
those for differences in macroeconomic projections.
B9 in the online section of the Statistical Appen-
Te IMF staff’s forecast also incorporates the most
dix for data on fiscal net lending/borrowing and
recent data releases from Statistics Canada’s National
structural balances.)1
Economic Accounts, including quarterly federal,
Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the
provincial, and territorial budgetary outturns.
available information regarding budget outturn,
Chile: Projections are based on the authorities’
budget plans, and IMF-supported program targets
budget projections, adjusted to reflect the IMF
for the federal government; on fiscal measures
staff’s projections for GDP, copper prices, deprecia-
announced by the authorities; and on IMF staff
tion, and inflation.
macroeconomic projections.
China: Staff fiscal projections incorporate the
Australia: Fiscal projections are based on data
2023 budget as well as estimates of off-budget
from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the fis-
financing.
cal year (FY)2023/24 budgets published by the
Denmark: Estimates for the current year are aligned
Commonwealth government and the respective
with the latest official budget numbers, adjusted
where appropriate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic
1 Te output gap is actual minus potential output, as a
assumptions. Beyond the current year, the projections
percentage of potential output. Structural balances are expressed
as a percentage of potential output. Te structural balance is the
incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal
actual net lending/borrowing minus the effects of cyclical output
plan as embodied in the authorities’ latest budget.
from potential output, corrected for one-time and other factors,
Structural balances are net of temporary fluctuations
such as asset and commodity prices and output composition
effects. Changes in the structural balance consequently include
in some revenues (for example, North Sea revenue,
effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in
pension yield tax revenue) and one-offs (COVID-19-
interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluc-
related one-offs are, however, included).
tuations in net lending/borrowing. Te computations of struc-
tural balances are based on the IMF staff’s estimates of potential
France: Projections for 2023 onward are based
GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities. (See Annex I of
on the 2018-23 budget laws, Stability Programme
the October 1993 WEO.) Estimates of the output gap and of
2023-27, draft medium-term programming bill,
the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncer-
and other available information on the authori-
tainty. Net debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets
corresponding to debt instruments.
ties’ fiscal plans, adjusted for differences in revenue
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
115
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Box A1 (continued)
projections and assumptions on macroeconomic
Italy: Te IMF staff’s estimates and projections
and financial variables.
are informed by the fiscal plans included in the
Germany: Te IMF staff’s projections for 2023
government’s 2023 budget and amendments. Te
and beyond are based on the 2023 budget, the
stock of maturing postal bonds is included in the
2023 Stability Programme, the draft 2024 federal
debt projections.
budget, the federal government’s medium-term
Japan: Te projections reflect fiscal measures the
budget plan, and data updates from the national
government has already announced, with adjust-
statistical agency (Destatis) and the ministry of
ments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.
finance, adjusted for differences in the IMF staff’s
Korea: Te forecast incorporates the overall fis-
macroeconomic framework and assumptions con-
cal balance in the 2022 annual budget and two
cerning revenue elasticities.
supplementary budgets, the proposed 2023 budget
Greece: Data since 2010 reflect adjustments in
and medium-term fiscal plan, and the IMF staff’s
line with the primary balance definition under the
adjustments.
enhanced surveillance framework for Greece.
Mexico: Te 2020 public sector borrowing
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Projec-
requirements estimated by the IMF staff adjust for
tions are based on the authorities’ medium-term
some statistical discrepancies between above-the-line
fiscal projections for expenditures.
and below-the-line numbers. Fiscal projections for
Hungary: Fiscal projections include the IMF staff’s
2023 and 2024 are informed by the estimates in
projections for the macroeconomic framework and
Criterios 2024; projections for 2025 onward assume
fiscal policy plans announced in the 2023 budget.
continued compliance with rules established in the
India: Projections are based on available informa-
Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Law.
tion on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjust-
Te Netherlands: Fiscal projections for 2023-28
ments for the IMF staff’s assumptions. Subnational
are based on the IMF staff’s forecast framework and
data are incorporated with a lag of up to one year;
are also informed by the authorities’ draft budget
general government data are thus finalized well after
plan and Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
central government data. IMF and Indian presenta-
projections.
tions differ, particularly regarding disinvestment and
New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the
license-auction proceeds, net versus gross recording
FY2023/24 budget (May 2023) and the IMF staff’s
of revenues in certain minor categories, and some
estimates.
public sector lending. Starting with FY2020/21
Portugal: Te projections for the current year are
data, expenditure also includes the off-budget
based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted
component of food subsidies, consistent with the
to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast.
revised treatment of food subsidies in the budget.
Projections thereafter are based on the assumption
Te IMF staff adjusts expenditure to take out pay-
of unchanged policies. Projections for 2023 reflect
ments for previous years’ food subsidies, which are
information available in the 2023 budget proposal.
included as expenditure in budget estimates for
Puerto Rico: Fiscal projections are informed by
FY2020/21.
the Certified Fiscal Plan for the Commonwealth
Indonesia: Te IMF staff’s projections are based
of Puerto Rico, which was prepared in April 2023,
on maintaining a neutral fiscal stance going forward,
certified by the Financial Oversight and Manage-
accompanied by moderate tax policy and admin-
ment Board.
istration reforms, some expenditure realization,
Russia: Te fiscal rule was suspended last year
and a gradual increase in capital spending over the
by the government in response to the sanctions
medium term in line with fiscal space.
imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, allowing for
Ireland: Fiscal projections are based on the coun-
windfall oil and gas revenues above benchmark to
try’s Budget 2023.
be used to finance a larger deficit in 2022. Savings
116
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Box A1 (continued)
accumulated in the National Welfare Fund can
2021-26 reflect disbursements under the EU
also now be used this way. A new fiscal rule will
Recovery and Resilience Facility.
become fully effective in 2025. Te new rule allows
Sweden: Fiscal estimates are based on the
for higher oil and gas revenues to be spent, but it
authorities’ budget projections, adjusted to reflect
simultaneously targets a smaller primary structural
the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecasts.
deficit.
Switzerland: Te projections assume that fiscal
Saudi Arabia: Te IMF staff’s baseline fiscal
policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal bal-
projections are based primarily on its understand-
ances in line with the requirements of Switzerland’s
ing of government policies as outlined in the 2022
fiscal rules.
budget. Export oil revenues are based on WEO
Türkiye: Te basis for the projections is the
baseline oil price assumptions and the IMF staff’s
IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some
understanding of current oil policy under the
revenue and expenditure items that are included in
OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
the authorities’ headline balance.
Countries, including Russia and other non-OPEC
United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on
oil exporters) agreement.
the March 2023 forecast from the Office for Budget
Singapore: FY2020 figures are based on budget
Responsibility (OBR) and the September 2023 release
execution. FY2021 projections are based on revised
on public sector finances from the Office for National
figures based on budget execution through the
Statistics. Te IMF staff’s projections take the OBR
end of 2021. FY2022 projections are based on the
forecast as a reference and overlay adjustments (for dif-
initial budget of February 18, 2022. Te IMF staff
ferences in assumptions) to both revenues and expen-
assumes gradual withdrawal of remaining pandemic-
ditures. Te IMF staff’s forecasts do not necessarily
related measures and the implementation of various
assume that the fiscal rules announced on November
revenue measures announced in the FY2022 budget
17, 2022, will be met at the end of the forecast
for the remainder of the projection period. Tese
period. Data are presented on a calendar year basis.
include (1) an increase in the Goods and Services
United States: Fiscal projections are based on the
Tax from 7 percent to 8 percent on January 1,
May 2023 Congressional Budget Office baseline
2023, and to 9 percent on January 1, 2024; (2) an
and the latest Treasury monthly statement, adjusted
increase in property taxes in 2023 for non-owner-
for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic
occupied properties (from 10 percent-20 percent
assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of
to 12 percent-36 percent) and for owner-occupied
the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
properties with an annual value in excess of $30,000
Monetary Policy Assumptions
(from 4 percent-16 percent to 6 percent-32 per-
cent); and (3) an increase of the carbon tax from
Monetary policy assumptions are based on the
S$5 a tonne to S$25 a tonne in 2024 and 2025 and
established policy framework in each country. In
S$45 a tonne in 2026 and 2027.
most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance
South Africa: Fiscal assumptions are informed by
over the business cycle: official interest rates will
the 2023 budget. Nontax revenue excludes transac-
increase when economic indicators suggest that
tions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve
inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range;
primarily revenues associated with realized exchange
they will decrease when indicators suggest inflation
rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign
will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that
currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually
output growth is below its potential rate, and that
similar items.
the margin of slack in the economy is significant.
Spain: Fiscal projections from 2023 onward
With regard to interest rates, please refer to the
assume energy support measures amounting to
Assumptions section at the beginning of the
1 percent of GDP in 2023. Projections for
Statistical Appendix.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
117
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Box A1 (continued)
Argentina: Monetary projections are consistent
Indonesia: Monetary policy assumptions are in
with the overall macroeconomic framework, the fiscal
line with inflation within the central bank’s target
and financing plans, and the monetary and foreign
band over the medium term.
exchange policies under the crawling-peg regime.
Israel: Monetary policy assumptions are based on
Australia: Monetary policy assumptions are based
gradual normalization of monetary policy.
on the IMF staff’s analysis and the expected infla-
Japan: Monetary policy assumptions are in line
tion path.
with market expectations.
Brazil: Monetary policy assumptions are consis-
Korea: Projections assume that the policy rate will
tent with the convergence of inflation within the
evolve in line with market expectations.
relevant monetary policy horizon.
Mexico: Monetary policy assumptions are consis-
Canada: Projections reflect the gradual unwinding
tent with attaining the inflation target.
monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Canada,
New Zealand: Monetary projections are based
as inflation slowly goes back to its mid-range target
on the IMF staff’s analysis and expected inflation
of 2 percent by early 2025.
path.
Chile: Monetary policy assumptions are consis-
Russia: Monetary policy projections assume
tent with attaining the inflation target.
that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is
China: Te overall monetary policy stance was
adopting a tight monetary policy stance.
moderately accommodative in 2022 and is expected
Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are
to remain broadly accommodative in 2023.
based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg
Denmark: Monetary policy is to maintain the peg
to the US dollar.
to the euro.
Singapore: Broad money is projected to grow in
Euro area: Monetary policy assumptions for euro
line with the projected growth in nominal GDP.
area member countries are drawn from a suite of
South Africa: Monetary policy assumptions are
models (semi-structural, DSGE [dynamic stochastic
consistent with maintaining inflation within the
general equilibrium], Taylor rule), market expecta-
3-6 percent target band over the medium term.
tions, and the European Central Bank Governing
Sweden: Monetary projections are in line with
Council communication.
Riksbank projections.
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Te
Türkiye: Te baseline assumes that the mon-
IMF staff assumes that the currency board system
etary policy stance will remain in line with market
will remain intact.
expectations.
Hungary: Te IMF staff’s estimates and projec-
United Kingdom: Te short-term interest rate
tions are informed by expert judgment based on
path is based on market interest rate expectations.
recent developments.
United States: Te IMF staff expects the Federal
India: Monetary policy projections are consistent
Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the
with achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation
federal funds target rate in line with the broader
target over the medium term.
macroeconomic outlook.
118
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
List of Tables1
Output
A1. Summary of World Output
A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand
A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP
A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
Inflation
A5. Summary of Inflation
A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices
A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
Financial Policies
A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
Foreign Trade
A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices
Current Account Transactions
A10. Summary of Current Account Balances
A11. Advanced Economies: Current Account Balance
A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Current Account Balance
Balance of Payments and External Financing
A13. Summary of Financial Account Balances
Flow of Funds
A14. Summary of Net Lending and Borrowing
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
A15. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
1 When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
119
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A1. Summary of World Output1
(Annual percent change)
Average
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
World
3.9
3.4
3.2
3.8
3.6
2.8
-2.8
6.3
3.5
3.0
2.9
3.1
Advanced Economies
1.5
2.3
1.8
2.5
2.3
1.7
-4.2
5.6
2.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
United States
1.6
2.7
1.7
2.2
2.9
2.3
-2.8
5.9
2.1
2.1
1.5
2.1
Euro Area
0.8
2.0
1.9
2.6
1.8
1.6
-6.1
5.6
3.3
0.7
1.2
1.3
Japan
0.5
1.6
0.8
1.7
0.6
-0.4
-4.2
2.2
1.0
2.0
1.0
0.4
Other Advanced Economies2
2.6
2.1
2.3
3.0
2.5
1.9
-4.1
6.0
3.1
1.5
1.8
2.0
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
6.0
4.3
4.4
4.8
4.6
3.6
-1.8
6.9
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia
8.3
6.8
6.8
6.6
6.4
5.2
-0.5
7.5
4.5
5.2
4.8
4.5
Emerging and Developing Europe
3.7
1.0
1.8
4.2
3.6
2.5
-1.6
7.3
0.8
2.4
2.2
2.4
Latin America and the Caribbean
3.4
0.3
-0.8
1.3
1.1
0.2
-7.0
7.3
4.1
2.3
2.3
2.5
Middle East and Central Asia
4.5
3.0
4.3
2.5
2.8
1.6
-2.6
4.3
5.6
2.0
3.4
3.7
Sub-Saharan Africa
5.5
3.2
1.5
3.0
3.3
3.2
-1.6
4.7
4.0
3.3
4.0
4.3
Analytical Groups
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel
4.7
1.7
2.0
0.5
0.8
-0.2
-4.0
4.0
5.4
2.4
3.5
3.0
Nonfuel
6.3
4.7
4.7
5.3
5.1
4.1
-1.5
7.2
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.0
Of which, Primary Products
4.3
2.5
1.4
2.9
1.2
0.8
-6.1
7.0
3.4
0.1
2.9
3.0
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies
5.1
4.0
3.9
4.7
4.6
3.3
-3.4
6.5
5.0
4.0
4.2
4.7
Net Debtor Economies by
Debt-Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears and/or
Rescheduling during 2018-22
4.5
1.4
2.8
3.9
3.6
3.3
-0.9
3.4
0.8
2.4
3.6
5.0
Other Groups
European Union
1.1
2.5
2.0
3.1
2.3
2.0
-5.6
5.9
3.6
0.7
1.5
1.7
Middle East and North Africa
4.2
2.9
4.7
1.9
2.1
0.9
-3.0
4.0
5.6
2.0
3.4
3.5
Emerging Market and Middle-Income
Economies
6.0
4.3
4.4
4.7
4.6
3.5
-2.1
7.2
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.7
Low-Income Developing Countries
6.0
4.8
3.9
4.9
5.1
5.0
1.1
3.9
5.2
4.0
5.1
5.6
Memorandum
Median Growth Rate
Advanced Economies
1.7
2.3
2.2
3.0
2.8
2.0
-4.2
6.3
2.8
1.3
1.6
2.1
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
4.5
3.3
3.3
3.7
3.6
3.2
-3.5
4.7
4.2
3.2
3.6
3.3
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies
3.9
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.4
-5.5
4.7
4.3
2.8
3.2
3.0
Low-Income Developing Countries
5.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
-0.9
4.6
4.0
4.0
4.7
4.8
Output per Capita3
Advanced Economies
0.9
1.7
1.3
2.1
1.9
1.3
-4.7
5.5
2.2
1.1
1.1
1.5
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
4.3
2.8
2.8
3.3
3.3
2.3
-3.1
5.7
3.5
2.9
2.9
2.8
Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies
4.6
3.0
3.1
3.6
3.6
2.5
-3.0
6.4
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.0
Low-Income Developing Countries
3.5
2.2
1.5
2.5
2.7
2.6
-1.2
1.1
4.1
1.6
2.9
3.3
World Growth Rate Based on Market
Exchange Rates
2.6
2.8
2.6
3.3
3.2
2.5
-3.2
6.1
3.0
2.5
2.4
2.6
Value of World Output (billions of US dollars)
At Market Exchange Rates
65,585
75,011
76,265
81,089
86,096
87,326
84,961
96,488
100,135
104,476
109,734
133,783
At Purchasing Power Parities
89,497
112,007
116,311
122,474
129,882
135,825
133,452
148,175
163,837
174,790
183,947
224,380
1Real GDP.
2Excludes euro area countries, Japan, and the United States.
3Output per capita is in international dollars at purchasing power parity.
120
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand1
(Annual percent change)
Q4 over Q42
Average
Projections
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
2022:Q4
2023:Q4
2024:Q4
Real GDP
Advanced Economies
1.5
2.3
1.8
2.5
2.3
1.7
-4.2
5.6
2.6
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.2
1.5
1.5
United States
1.6
2.7
1.7
2.2
2.9
2.3
-2.8
5.9
2.1
2.1
1.5
2.1
0.9
1.9
1.4
Euro Area
0.8
2.0
1.9
2.6
1.8
1.6
-6.1
5.6
3.3
0.7
1.2
1.3
1.7
0.7
1.4
Germany
1.4
1.5
2.2
2.7
1.0
1.1
-3.8
3.2
1.8
-0.5
0.9
0.9
0.8
-0.2
1.7
France
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.5
1.8
1.9
-7.7
6.4
2.5
1.0
1.3
1.4
0.7
1.0
1.5
Italy3
-0.5
0.8
1.3
1.7
0.9
0.5
-9.0
7.0
3.7
0.7
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.3
1.2
Spain
0.5
3.8
3.0
3.0
2.3
2.0
-11.2
6.4
5.8
2.5
1.7
1.6
3.8
1.6
2.0
The Netherlands
1.1
2.0
2.2
2.9
2.4
2.0
-3.9
6.2
4.3
0.6
1.1
1.6
3.1
-0.1
1.4
Belgium
1.4
2.0
1.3
1.6
1.8
2.3
-5.4
6.3
3.2
1.0
0.9
1.3
1.5
1.0
0.8
Ireland
1.8
24.5
1.8
9.3
8.5
5.3
6.6
15.1
9.4
2.0
3.3
2.7
10.8
6.4
-3.0
Austria
1.3
1.0
2.0
2.3
2.4
1.5
-6.5
4.6
4.8
0.1
0.8
1.3
2.7
-0.2
1.5
Portugal
-0.2
1.8
2.0
3.5
2.8
2.7
-8.3
5.5
6.7
2.3
1.5
1.9
3.2
2.1
2.2
Greece
-2.1
-0.2
-0.5
1.1
1.7
1.9
-9.0
8.4
5.9
2.5
2.0
1.1
4.8
2.4
1.5
Finland
0.7
0.5
2.8
3.2
1.1
1.2
-2.4
3.2
1.6
-0.1
1.0
1.6
-0.5
0.0
2.7
Slovak Republic
3.9
5.2
1.9
2.9
4.0
2.5
-3.3
4.9
1.7
1.3
2.5
2.7
1.0
1.6
2.9
Croatia
0.4
2.5
3.6
3.4
2.8
3.4
-8.5
13.1
6.2
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.8
2.5
3.6
Lithuania
3.0
2.0
2.5
4.3
4.0
4.6
0.0
6.0
1.9
-0.2
2.7
2.1
-0.5
0.9
2.5
Slovenia
1.3
2.2
3.2
4.8
4.5
3.5
-4.2
8.2
2.5
2.0
2.2
2.8
-1.5
0.2
2.4
Luxembourg
2.5
2.3
5.0
1.3
1.2
2.9
-0.9
7.2
1.4
-0.4
1.5
2.3
-2.3
2.4
0.4
Latvia
2.1
3.9
2.4
3.3
4.0
2.6
-2.3
4.3
2.8
0.5
2.6
3.2
1.2
0.7
3.4
Estonia
2.2
1.9
3.2
5.8
3.8
4.0
-1.0
7.2
-0.5
-2.3
2.4
2.9
-3.2
-0.2
3.0
Cyprus
0.6
3.4
6.6
5.7
5.6
5.5
-4.4
6.6
5.6
2.2
2.7
2.9
4.0
1.8
2.9
Malta
3.6
9.6
3.4
10.9
7.4
7.1
-8.1
12.3
6.9
3.8
3.3
3.5
5.3
3.0
3.3
Japan
0.5
1.6
0.8
1.7
0.6
-0.4
-4.2
2.2
1.0
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.5
2.1
1.0
United Kingdom3
1.2
2.4
2.2
2.4
1.7
1.6
-11.0
7.6
4.1
0.5
0.6
1.5
0.6
0.6
0.8
Korea
3.8
2.8
2.9
3.2
2.9
2.2
-0.7
4.3
2.6
1.4
2.2
2.1
1.3
2.6
1.8
Canada
1.9
0.7
1.0
3.0
2.8
1.9
-5.1
5.0
3.4
1.3
1.6
1.7
2.1
1.2
2.1
Taiwan Province of China
4.0
1.5
2.2
3.3
2.8
3.1
3.4
6.5
2.4
0.8
3.0
2.1
-1.0
1.9
4.0
Australia
2.8
2.3
2.7
2.4
2.8
1.9
-1.8
5.2
3.7
1.8
1.2
2.3
2.7
0.9
2.3
Switzerland
2.2
1.6
2.1
1.4
2.9
1.2
-2.3
5.4
2.7
0.9
1.8
1.8
1.2
1.2
1.6
Singapore
6.1
3.0
3.6
4.5
3.6
1.3
-3.9
8.9
3.6
1.0
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.1
1.3
Sweden
1.8
4.5
2.1
2.6
2.0
2.0
-2.2
6.1
2.8
-0.7
0.6
2.1
-0.2
-1.0
2.1
Hong Kong SAR
3.9
2.4
2.2
3.8
2.8
-1.7
-6.5
6.4
-3.5
4.4
2.9
2.4
-4.1
7.4
2.2
Czech Republic
2.2
5.4
2.5
5.2
3.2
3.0
-5.5
3.6
2.3
0.2
2.3
2.5
0.1
1.4
2.6
Israel
4.2
2.3
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.8
-1.5
9.3
6.5
3.1
3.0
3.8
2.6
2.8
3.1
Norway
1.4
1.9
1.2
2.5
0.8
1.1
-1.3
3.9
3.3
2.3
1.5
1.4
1.7
3.3
0.2
Denmark
0.7
2.3
3.2
2.8
2.0
1.5
-2.4
6.8
2.7
1.7
1.4
1.3
0.4
1.5
1.6
New Zealand
2.0
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.5
3.1
-1.5
6.1
2.7
1.1
1.0
2.4
2.3
0.6
2.2
Puerto Rico
-1.1
-1.0
-1.3
-2.9
-4.4
1.7
-4.4
0.2
2.0
-0.7
-0.2
0.8
Macao SAR
10.2
-21.5
-0.7
10.0
6.5
-2.5
-54.2
19.3
-26.8
74.4
27.2
3.4
Iceland
2.1
4.4
6.3
4.2
4.9
1.9
-7.2
4.5
7.2
3.3
1.7
2.4
5.1
-0.6
5.4
Andorra
-0.8
1.4
3.7
0.3
1.6
2.0
-11.2
8.3
8.8
2.1
1.5
1.5
San Marino
-2.2
2.7
2.3
0.3
1.5
2.0
-6.8
14.2
5.0
2.2
1.3
1.3
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
1.2
2.1
1.5
2.2
2.1
1.6
-4.5
5.4
2.3
1.5
1.2
1.6
0.9
1.4
1.3
Real Total Domestic Demand
Advanced Economies
1.3
2.6
2.0
2.5
2.3
2.0
-4.1
5.6
3.0
1.0
1.4
1.8
1.0
1.6
1.4
United States
1.4
3.4
1.8
2.3
3.1
2.3
-2.4
7.0
2.4
1.4
1.4
2.1
0.5
1.8
1.3
Euro Area
0.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.4
-5.7
4.4
3.6
0.3
1.2
1.4
1.2
0.7
1.2
Germany
1.1
1.4
3.1
2.6
1.6
1.5
-3.1
2.5
3.2
-0.9
0.9
1.0
1.7
-0.7
1.8
France
1.2
1.4
1.4
2.6
1.4
2.2
-6.4
6.0
3.1
0.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
0.9
0.8
Italy3
-0.8
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.3
-0.2
-8.4
7.2
4.3
0.3
0.9
1.0
0.3
1.3
0.7
Spain
-0.2
4.1
2.1
3.3
3.0
1.7
-9.2
6.7
3.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
0.8
2.9
0.9
Japan
0.5
1.1
0.3
1.1
0.6
0.0
-3.4
1.2
1.6
1.0
1.0
0.5
1.1
0.9
1.3
United Kingdom3
1.2
2.9
3.2
2.1
1.2
1.8
-12.3
8.8
4.4
0.8
0.5
1.5
-0.2
4.3
-0.8
Canada
2.7
-0.2
0.4
4.1
2.5
1.1
-6.0
6.6
4.7
-0.7
1.9
2.0
1.7
0.4
2.7
Other Advanced Economies4
2.8
2.6
2.9
3.6
2.7
1.6
-2.4
5.5
3.3
1.3
2.0
2.3
2.2
1.4
3.0
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
1.1
2.4
1.7
2.2
2.2
1.7
-4.2
5.8
2.8
0.8
1.2
1.6
0.8
1.4
1.2
1In this and other tables, when countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.
2From the fourth quarter of the preceding year.
3See the country-specific notes for Italy and the United Kingdom in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
4Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
121
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP
(Annual percent change)
Averages
Projections
2005-14
2015-24
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Private Consumer Expenditure
Advanced Economies
1.4
1.7
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.5
-5.5
5.6
3.6
1.7
1.5
United States
1.7
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.9
2.0
-3.0
8.3
2.7
2.4
1.2
Euro Area
0.5
1.1
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.4
-7.7
4.1
4.3
0.7
1.6
Germany
0.8
1.0
1.9
2.4
1.4
1.5
1.6
-5.9
1.5
3.9
-0.5
2.1
France
1.2
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.0
1.8
-6.7
5.2
2.2
0.0
1.5
Italy1
-0.4
0.6
1.9
1.2
1.5
1.0
0.2
-10.4
4.7
4.6
1.4
1.1
Spain
0.0
1.3
2.9
2.7
3.0
1.7
1.1
-12.3
7.1
4.7
2.0
1.4
Japan
0.7
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
1.1
0.2
-0.6
-4.7
0.4
2.1
1.0
1.3
United Kingdom1
1.2
1.0
3.1
3.6
1.9
2.5
1.1
-13.2
6.2
5.6
0.2
0.0
Canada
2.9
2.2
2.3
2.1
3.7
2.6
1.5
-6.1
5.0
4.8
3.1
3.4
Other Advanced Economies2
2.7
2.0
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.8
1.9
-5.4
4.3
4.1
2.4
2.3
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
1.3
1.6
2.4
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.4
-5.1
5.8
3.2
1.6
1.3
Public Consumption
Advanced Economies
1.2
1.8
1.7
2.1
0.8
1.5
2.8
1.9
3.6
1.0
1.3
1.0
United States
0.3
1.5
1.6
1.9
-0.1
1.2
3.4
2.2
1.3
-0.2
2.7
1.4
Euro Area
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.9
1.1
1.0
1.8
1.1
4.1
1.3
0.1
0.6
Germany
1.7
2.0
2.9
4.0
1.7
0.8
2.6
4.1
3.1
1.6
-1.6
1.0
France
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.4
0.8
1.0
-4.2
6.5
2.6
0.9
0.7
Italy1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.6
0.7
-0.1
0.1
-0.6
0.0
1.5
0.0
-2.5
-1.6
Spain
2.1
1.9
2.0
1.0
1.0
2.3
1.9
3.6
3.4
-0.2
3.0
1.3
Japan
1.3
1.4
1.9
1.6
0.1
1.0
1.9
2.4
3.5
1.2
0.0
0.0
United Kingdom1
1.3
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.3
4.1
-7.3
12.5
1.8
2.6
1.6
Canada
1.7
2.0
1.4
1.8
2.1
3.2
1.0
1.3
6.4
2.0
0.4
0.4
Other Advanced Economies2
2.9
3.0
2.8
3.5
2.4
3.5
3.7
4.6
4.5
2.6
0.9
1.1
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.9
0.4
1.1
2.6
1.1
3.2
0.6
1.4
0.9
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Advanced Economies
0.9
2.3
3.6
2.6
3.9
3.1
3.0
-3.2
5.5
1.4
1.0
2.0
United States
1.2
2.4
3.7
2.1
3.8
4.7
2.6
-1.2
5.7
-0.5
0.5
2.8
Euro Area
-0.3
2.5
4.7
4.0
3.9
3.1
6.9
-6.3
3.4
2.8
1.4
1.5
Germany
1.7
1.2
1.7
3.8
2.6
3.3
1.7
-2.4
-0.2
0.1
0.9
0.3
France
0.7
2.3
0.8
2.5
5.0
3.2
4.1
-7.0
10.2
2.4
1.6
0.5
Italy1
-2.8
3.5
1.8
4.0
3.2
3.1
1.2
-7.9
18.6
9.4
1.1
2.8
Spain
-2.6
2.6
4.9
2.4
6.8
6.3
4.5
-9.0
2.8
2.4
2.4
3.8
Japan
-0.3
0.6
2.3
1.2
1.6
0.6
0.5
-3.5
0.2
-0.9
2.3
1.3
United Kingdom1
0.8
1.9
6.5
4.9
3.5
-0.2
1.9
-10.5
6.1
8.6
1.3
-1.9
Canada
3.2
0.1
-5.2
-4.7
3.3
2.5
0.8
-2.4
7.4
-1.5
-1.8
3.1
Other Advanced Economies2
2.9
2.5
2.3
3.0
4.9
2.1
0.8
-1.0
7.9
2.2
1.0
2.4
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
0.8
2.0
2.8
2.2
3.4
3.3
2.2
-3.2
5.6
1.0
0.9
1.8
122
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP (continued)
(Annual percent change)
Averages
Projections
2005-14
2015-24
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Final Domestic Demand
Advanced Economies
1.3
1.8
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.1
-3.7
5.2
2.6
1.5
1.5
United States
1.4
2.3
3.1
2.3
2.3
3.0
2.3
-1.9
6.7
1.7
2.1
1.6
Euro Area
0.5
1.5
2.3
2.4
2.1
1.8
2.6
-5.5
4.0
3.3
0.7
1.4
Germany
1.2
1.2
2.1
3.1
1.7
1.8
1.8
-2.9
1.5
2.5
-0.5
1.5
France
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.7
2.3
1.4
2.1
-6.2
6.6
2.3
0.6
1.1
Italy1
-0.8
1.0
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.2
0.2
-8.0
6.6
4.7
0.6
1.0
Spain
-0.1
1.7
3.1
2.3
3.3
2.7
1.9
-8.5
5.4
3.2
2.3
1.9
Japan
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.2
-3.0
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.2
United Kingdom1
1.1
1.3
3.3
3.3
1.9
1.6
1.8
-11.6
7.5
5.3
0.9
0.0
Canada
2.7
1.5
0.3
0.5
3.3
2.7
1.3
-3.8
5.8
2.7
0.8
2.1
Other Advanced Economies2
2.8
2.3
2.7
2.9
3.4
2.4
1.9
-2.4
5.3
3.1
1.7
2.1
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
1.1
1.7
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.2
1.8
-3.6
5.5
2.3
1.4
1.3
Stock Building3
Advanced Economies
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.4
0.3
0.6
-0.5
-0.1
United States
0.0
0.0
0.3
-0.5
0.0
0.2
0.0
-0.5
0.2
0.7
-0.7
-0.1
Euro Area
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.4
0.4
-0.4
-0.1
Germany
-0.1
0.0
-0.7
0.0
0.9
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.9
0.7
-0.4
-0.5
France
0.1
0.0
0.3
-0.4
0.3
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.6
0.8
-0.1
0.1
Italy1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.5
-0.5
0.5
-0.4
-0.1
-0.2
Spain
-0.1
-0.5
-1.5
-0.1
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
Japan
-0.1
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.5
0.2
0.4
-0.1
0.0
United Kingdom1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
-0.5
0.1
-0.6
1.0
0.3
-0.8
0.0
Canada
0.0
0.2
-0.5
0.0
0.9
-0.1
-0.1
-1.2
1.1
3.0
-1.1
-0.2
Other Advanced Economies2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.1
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.3
0.7
-0.5
-0.1
Foreign Balance3
Advanced Economies
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
0.6
0.1
United States
0.2
-0.3
-0.8
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-1.2
-0.4
0.6
0.0
Euro Area
0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.4
0.0
-0.7
-0.6
1.4
-0.2
0.3
0.1
Germany
0.4
-0.2
0.3
-0.6
0.2
-0.6
-0.3
-1.0
0.8
-1.3
0.4
0.2
France
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.2
0.4
-0.3
-1.2
0.1
-0.7
0.4
0.1
Italy1
0.3
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
0.0
-0.3
0.7
-0.8
0.0
-0.5
0.2
-0.1
Spain
0.7
0.1
-0.1
1.0
-0.2
-0.6
0.4
-2.2
-0.2
2.9
0.5
0.0
Japan
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.0
-0.5
-0.9
1.1
-0.5
0.7
0.0
United Kingdom1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-0.3
1.0
-0.1
-0.3
1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-0.4
0.2
Canada
-0.8
-0.1
0.8
0.4
-1.1
0.2
0.7
0.3
-2.1
-1.5
1.9
-0.3
Other Advanced Economies2
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.5
-0.3
0.7
0.3
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
0.5
0.0
1See the country-specific notes for Italy and the United Kingdom in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.
2Excludes the Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.
3Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
123
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: NAVIGATING GLOBAL DIVERGENCES
Table A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
(Annual percent change)
Average
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Emerging and Developing Asia
8.3
6.8
6.8
6.6
6.4
5.2
-0.5
7.5
4.5
5.2
4.8
4.5
Bangladesh
6.2
6.6
7.1
6.6
7.3
7.9
3.4
6.9
7.1
6.0
6.0
7.0
Bhutan
7.6
6.2
7.4
6.3
3.8
4.4
-2.3
-3.3
4.8
5.3
3.0
3.6
Brunei Darussalam
0.4
-0.4
-2.5
1.3
0.1
3.9
1.1
-1.6
-1.6
-0.8
3.5
3.2
Cambodia
7.5
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.5
7.1
-3.1
3.0
5.2
5.6
6.1
6.3
China
10.0
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.0
2.2
8.4
3.0
5.0
4.2
3.4
Fiji
1.6
4.5
2.4
5.4
3.8
-0.6
-17.0
-4.9
20.0
7.5
3.9
3.3
India1
7.7
8.0
8.3
6.8
6.5
3.9
-5.8
9.1
7.2
6.3
6.3
6.3
Indonesia
5.9
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
-2.1
3.7
5.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
Kiribati
1.4
9.9
-0.5
-0.1
5.3
-2.1
-1.4
7.9
1.2
2.6
2.4
2.1
Lao P.D.R.
7.8
7.3
7.0
6.9
6.3
4.7
-0.4
2.1
2.3
4.0
4.0
4.5
Malaysia
4.9
5.0
4.4
5.8
4.8
4.4
-5.5
3.3
8.7
4.0
4.3
3.9
Maldives
5.1
2.9
6.3
7.2
8.1
6.9
-33.4
41.7
13.9
8.1
5.0
5.1
Marshall Islands
0.7
2.1
2.1
3.7
5.7
10.3
-2.9
1.0
-4.5
3.0
3.0
1.5
Micronesia
-0.4
4.6
0.9
2.7
0.2
1.2
-2.8
-2.2
-0.6
2.6
3.1
0.6
Mongolia
8.5
2.4
1.5
5.6
7.7
5.6
-4.6
1.6
5.0
5.5
4.5
4.0
Myanmar
8.4
7.5
6.4
5.8
6.4
6.8
3.2
-17.9
2.0
2.6
2.6
3.4
Nauru
7.5
-5.7
8.0
-5.9
7.2
9.1
4.1
2.9
1.9
0.5
1.3
2.3
Nepal
4.3
4.0
0.4
9.0
7.6
6.7
-2.4
4.8
5.6
0.8
5.0
5.1
Palau
0.0
9.5
1.5
-3.5
1.3
1.4
-7.0
-13.4
-2.0
0.8
12.4
1.5
Papua New Guinea
5.4
6.6
5.5
3.5
-0.3
4.5
-3.2
0.1
4.3
3.0
5.0
3.1
Philippines
5.4
6.3
7.1
6.9
6.3
6.1
-9.5
5.7
7.6
5.3
5.9
6.4
Samoa
1.5
3.9
8.0
1.4
-0.6
4.5
-3.1
-7.1
-5.3
8.0
3.6
2.3
Solomon Islands
4.7
1.7
5.6
3.1
2.7
1.7
-3.4
-0.6
-4.1
2.5
2.4
3.0
Sri Lanka1
6.6
4.2
5.1
6.5
2.3
-0.2
-4.6
3.5
-7.8
Thailand
3.5
3.1
3.4
4.2
4.2
2.1
-6.1
1.5
2.6
2.7
3.2
3.0
Timor-Leste2
5.7
2.8
3.4
-3.1
-0.7
2.1
-8.3
2.9
3.9
1.5
3.1
3.0
Tonga
0.5
1.2
6.6
3.3
0.2
0.7
0.5
-2.7
-2.0
2.6
2.5
1.2
Tuvalu
1.2
9.4
4.7
3.3
1.4
13.8
-4.3
1.8
0.7
3.9
3.5
2.0
Vanuatu
3.4
0.4
4.7
6.3
2.9
3.2
-5.0
0.6
1.9
1.5
2.6
2.5
Vietnam
6.3
7.0
6.7
6.9
7.5
7.4
2.9
2.6
8.0
4.7
5.8
6.8
Emerging and Developing Europe
3.7
1.0
1.8
4.2
3.6
2.5
-1.6
7.3
0.8
2.4
2.2
2.4
Albania
3.8
2.2
3.3
3.8
4.0
2.1
-3.3
8.9
4.8
3.6
3.3
3.5
Belarus
5.5
-3.8
-2.5
2.5
3.1
1.4
-0.7
2.3
-3.7
1.6
1.3
0.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2.5
4.3
3.2
3.2
3.8
2.9
-3.0
7.4
4.1
2.0
3.0
3.0
Bulgaria
2.8
3.4
3.0
2.8
2.7
4.0
-4.0
7.6
3.4
1.7
3.2
2.8
Hungary
1.0
3.7
2.2
4.3
5.4
4.9
-4.5
7.2
4.6
-0.3
3.1
3.5
Kosovo
4.5
5.9
5.6
4.8
3.4
4.8
-5.3
10.7
3.5
3.8
4.0
3.8
Moldova
4.3
-0.3
4.4
4.2
4.1
3.6
-8.3
13.9
-5.0
2.0
4.3
5.0
Montenegro
2.9
3.4
2.9
4.7
5.1
4.1
-15.3
13.0
6.1
4.5
3.7
3.0
North Macedonia
3.3
3.9
2.8
1.1
2.9
3.9
-4.7
3.9
2.1
2.5
3.2
3.5
Poland
3.8
4.4
3.0
5.1
5.9
4.4
-2.0
6.9
5.1
0.6
2.3
3.1
Romania
3.0
3.2
2.9
8.2
6.0
3.8
-3.7
5.9
4.7
2.2
3.8
3.7
Russia
3.4
-2.0
0.2
1.8
2.8
2.2
-2.7
5.6
-2.1
2.2
1.1
0.9
Serbia
2.3
1.8
3.3
2.1
4.5
4.3
-0.9
7.5
2.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
Türkiye1
5.4
6.1
3.3
7.5
3.0
0.8
1.9
11.4
5.5
4.0
3.0
3.2
Ukraine1
0.7
-9.8
2.4
2.4
3.5
3.2
-3.8
3.4
-29.1
2.0
3.2
4.0
Latin America and the Caribbean
3.4
0.3
-0.8
1.3
1.1
0.2
-7.0
7.3
4.1
2.3
2.3
2.5
Antigua and Barbuda
1.1
3.8
5.5
3.1
6.8
4.3
-17.5
6.6
8.5
5.6
5.4
2.8
Argentina
3.8
2.7
-2.1
2.8
-2.6
-2.0
-9.9
10.7
5.0
-2.5
2.8
2.5
Aruba
-0.1
3.6
2.1
0.7
2.4
-2.3
-24.0
27.6
10.5
2.3
1.2
1.1
The Bahamas
0.5
1.0
-0.8
2.5
2.9
-0.7
-23.5
17.0
14.4
4.3
1.8
1.5
Barbados
0.2
2.4
2.5
0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-13.3
-0.2
9.8
4.5
3.9
2.0
Belize
2.1
3.4
0.1
-1.7
1.1
4.5
-13.4
15.2
12.7
4.0
3.0
2.5
Bolivia
5.0
4.9
4.3
4.2
4.2
2.2
-8.7
6.1
3.5
1.8
1.8
2.3
Brazil
3.5
-3.5
-3.3
1.3
1.8
1.2
-3.3
5.0
2.9
3.1
1.5
2.0
Chile
4.3
2.2
1.8
1.4
4.0
0.7
-6.1
11.7
2.4
-0.5
1.6
2.4
Colombia
4.7
3.0
2.1
1.4
2.6
3.2
-7.3
11.0
7.3
1.4
2.0
3.3
124
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP (continued)
(Annual percent change)
Average
Projections
2005-14
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2028
Latin America and the
Caribbean (continued)
3.4
0.3
-0.8
1.3
1.1
0.2
-7.0
7.3
4.1
2.3
2.3
2.5
Costa Rica
4.4
3.7
4.2
4.2
2.6
2.4
-4.3
7.8
4.3
4.4
3.2
3.2
Dominica
2.0
-2.7
2.8
-6.6
3.5
5.5
-16.6
6.9
5.7
4.6
4.6
2.7
Dominican Republic
5.6
6.9
6.7
4.7
7.0
5.1
-6.7
12.3
4.9
3.0
5.2
5.0
Ecuador
4.4
0.1
-1.2
2.4
1.3
0.0
-7.8
4.2
2.9
1.4
1.8
2.8
El Salvador
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.5
-7.9
11.2
2.6
2.2
1.9
2.0
Grenada
1.7
6.4
3.7
4.4
4.4
0.7
-13.8
4.7
6.4
3.9
3.8
2.7
Guatemala
3.7
4.1
2.7
3.1
3.4
4.0
-1.8
8.0
4.1
3.4
3.5
3.9
Guyana
3.5
0.7
3.8
3.7
4.4
5.4
43.5
20.1
62.3
38.4
26.6
13.5
Haiti
2.4
2.6
1.8
2.5
1.7
-1.7
-3.3
-1.8
-1.7
-1.5
1.4
1.5
Honduras
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.8
3.8
2.7
-9.0
12.5
4.0
2.9
3.2
3.8
Jamaica
0.1
0.9
1.5
0.7
1.8
1.0
-9.9
4.6
5.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
Mexico
1.8
2.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
-0.3
-8.7
5.8
3.9
3.2
2.1
2.1
Nicaragua
4.0
4.8
4.8
4.4
-3.4
-2.9
-1.8
10.3
3.8
3.0
3.3
3.5
Panama
7.7
5.7
5.0
5.6
3.7
3.3
-17.7
15.8
10.8
6.0
4.0
4.0
Paraguay
4.6
3.0
4.3
4.8
3.2
-0.4
-0.8
4.0
0.1
4.5
3.8
3.5
Peru
6.1
3.3
4.0
2.5
4.0
2.2
-11.0
13.3
2.7
1.1
2.7
3.0
St. Kitts and Nevis
3.5
0.7
3.9
0.0
2.1
4.1
-14.6
-0.9
8.8
4.9
3.8
2.7
St. Lucia
1.5
-0.2
3.8
3.4
2.9
-0.2
-23.6
11.3
15.7
3.2
2.3
1.5
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
1.1
2.8
4.1
1.5
3.2
0.7
-3.7
0.8
5.5
6.2
5.0
2.7
Suriname
4.0
-3.4
-4.9
1.6
4.9
1.1
-15.9
-2.7
1.0
2.1
3.0
3.0
Trinidad and Tobago
3.6
1.0
-7.5
-4.8
-0.6
0.4
-9.1
-1.0
1.5
2.5
2.2
1.4
Uruguay1
5.4
0.4
1.7
1.7
0.2
0.7
-6.3
5.3
4.9
1.0
3.2
2.2
Venezuela
3.6
-6.2
-17.0
-15.7
-19.7
-27.7
-30.0
1.0
8.0
4.0
4.5
Middle East and Central Asia
4.5
3.0
4.3
2.5
2.8
1.6
-2.6
4.3
5.6
2.0
3.4
3.7
Afghanistan1
9.1
1.0
2.2
2.6
1.2
3.9
-2.4
-20.7
Algeria
3.1
3.7
3.2
1.4
1.2
1.0
-5.1
3.4
3.2
3.8
3.1
1.7
Armenia
5.2
3.3
0.2
7.5
5.2
7.6
-7.2
5.7
12.6
7.0
5.0
4.5
Azerbaijan
11.6
1.1
-3.1
0.2
1.5
2.5
-4.2
5.6
4.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
Bahrain
5.0
2.5
3.6
4.3
2.1
2.2
-4.6
2.6
4.9
2.7
3.6
2.7
Djibouti
4.9
7.3
7.1
5.5
4.8
5.5
1.3
4.5
3.2
5.0
6.0
5.0
Egypt
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
5.3
5.5
3.6
3.3
6.7
4.2
3.6
6.0
Georgia
5.7
3.0
2.9
4.8
4.8
5.0
-6.8
10.5
10.1
6.2
4.8
5.2
Iran
2.5
-1.4
8.8
2.8
-1.8
-3.1
3.3
4.7
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.0
Iraq
5.6
2.5
15.2
-3.4
4.7
5.4
-12.1
1.6
7.0
-2.7
2.9
3.2
Jordan
5.1
2.5
2.0
2.5
1.9
1.8
-1.6
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.0
Kazakhstan
6.3
1.0
0.9
3.9
4.1
4.5
-2.6
4.1
3.3
4.6
4.2
3.0
Kuwait
3.4
0.6
2.9
-4.7
2.4
-0.6
-8.9
1.1
8.9
-0.6
3.6
2.4
Kyrgyz Republic
4.2
3.9
4.3
4.7
3.5
4.6
-7.1
5.5
6.3
3.4
4.3
4.0
Lebanon1
4.8
0.5
1.6
0.9
-1.9
-6.9
-25.9
-10.0
0.0
Libya
-3.6
-0.8
-1.5
32.5
7.9
-11.2
-29.5
28.3
-9.6
12.5
7.5
2.3
Mauritania
4.3
5.4
1.3
6.3
4.8
5.4
-0.9
2.4
6.5
4.5
5.3
4.1
Morocco
4.3
4.3
0.5
5.1
3.1
2.9
-7.2
8.0
1.3
2.4
3.6
3.4
Oman
4.8
5.0
5.0
0.3
1.3
-1.1
-3.4
3.1
4.3
1.2
2.7
3.1
Pakistan
4.0
3.8
4.1
4.6
6.1
3.1
-0.9
5.8
6.1
-0.5
2.5
5.0
Qatar
12.7
4.8
3.1
-1.5
1.2
0.7
-3.6
1.5
4.9
2.4
2.2
2.8
Saudi Arabia
4.2
4.7
2.4
-0.1
2.8
0.8
-4.3
3.9
8.7
0.8
4.0
3.1
Somalia
4.6
-1.3
9.5
3.0
3.6
-2.6
3.3
2.4
2.8
3.7
4.3
Sudan1,3
0.7
4.9
4.7
0.8
-2.3
-2.5
-3.6
0.5
-2.5
-18.3
0.3
4.5
Syria4
Tajikistan
6.9
6.0
6.9
7.1
7.6
7.4
4.4
9.4
8.0
6.5
5.0
4.5
Tunisia
3.4
1.0
1.1
2.2
2.6
1.6
-8.8
4.4
2.5
1.3
1.9
2.6
Turkmenistan
9.3
3.0
-1.0
4.7
0.9
-3.4
-2.9
4.6
1.6
2.5
2.1
1.9
United Arab Emirates
3.8
6.8
5.6
0.7
1.3
1.1
-5.0
4.4
7.9
3.4
4.0
4.5
Uzbekistan
7.7
7.2
5.9
4.4
5.9
6.0
2.0
7.4
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
West Bank and Gaza
5.5
3.7
8.9
1.4
1.2
1.4
-11.3
7.0
3.9
3.0
2.7
2.0
Yemen
2.0
-28.0
-9.4
-5.1
0.8
2.1
-8.5
-1.0
1.5
-0.5
2.0
5.5
International Monetary Fund | October 2023
125
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